Thoughts on the adoption of new technologies.

I wrote the article below to educate clients and students in 2002. I hope that it is useful to folks now too.

I am regarded by most people that know me as being something of an expert on high technology issues.  While I appreciate their confidence in my ability, I believe that my real strength lies in my understanding of when a technology should be adopted and when it shouldn't.

Believe me when I tell you: "just because something is a higher technology, that doesn't mean that it is a better technology". Sometimes it is and sometimes it isn't.

In the high pressure, vendor saturated world, that buyers live in, it is imperative that buyers understand what is the level of technology that is optimum for their particular environment. That is, what is the appropriate technology for their particular needs?

Here are some basic question that I would use to determine if a given technology is the appropriate one for a client.

• Is the current technology working well for your needs?
• Was the need for a change in technology created by a "sales pitch" or from within the company?
• Does the client need an upgrade in technology based on current needs?
• Does the client need an upgrade in technology based on foreseeable needs?
• Can the client afford to make a bad decision and pick the wrong technology?
• What do the users of the existing technology think about the current technology?
• What do the users of the existing technology think about the proposed technology?
• Is this the right time for a change in technology?
• Is the technology changing rapidly?
• Has the technology that is being considered been widely proven in the field?
• Is the technology proprietary?
• Is a limited trial such as a "proof of concept" the way to go?
• Other than the vendor, is there wide support in industry for the technology?
• Is the technology scaleable and extensible? Affordably? By many vendors?
• If the technology is Information Technology (IT), does it adhere to "Open Standards" or does it use Proprietary Standards?
• Is Moore's Law in play?
• Will the new technology improve the overall reliability of your production line or service?
• Will the new technology improve the quality of your product or service?
• Will the new technology lower the total cost of your product or service?
• Is the vendor prepared to accept financial penalties for techno-glitches?
• If the higher technology is adopted, will it cause a serious labour disruption in the facility?
• Does management understand that changes in technology require both patience and financial resources?

Looking at the above list, the reader is forgiven for believing that I am against technological change. The reality is that I don't believe in change for the sake of change, I believe in technological change if and only if it will make a demonstrably positive difference for my client.

Are High-Rise Condominiums a TechnoFolly that are entering an inexorable value decline?

Question:  Are High-Rise Condominiums a TechnoFolly that are entering an inexorable value decline?


In the energy future future, do you believe that high rise anything will be high risk and eventually abandoned? I believe that the answer is yes but please make up your own mind. At least think about the issue.

graphic source: http://netenergy.theoildrum.com/node/5500

Peak Technology was reached 11 March 2011

I had started this article with the goal of using the series of tragic events that commenced 11 March 2011 in Japan to illustrate Leibig's Law of the Minimum.

Upon reflection, I have had to rewrite this piece as I believe that 11 March 2011 will prove to be a seminal date in human history - that was the day that techno-man reached his technological apex, that is to say, the day when "Peak Technology" was achieved and passed.

Mankind is now in technical decline and will never again reach the implemented overall level of technology that existed prior to that fateful March day. Sadly there will be one class of exceptions: there will inevitably be advances in weaponry and methods of human subjugation. 

Why do I claim that Peak Technology has passed? In no particular order:

• Climate Change is real. Very real and will affect us all. When we speak of habitat loss, we are just speaking about the fauna and flora - think human habitat loss too. It is too late to develop the systems that were needed to mitigate the tragic circumstances that will be upon us very soon.
• Oil availability and pricing issues will affect the global economy radically. Energy is the master resource which all economies need to exist. Without oil, coal and electricity, there is no real economic growth - none. Managing this decline will become a priority over technology.
• Japan, the 3rd largest national economy, will likely have to relocate 2 million of it's citizens inside Japan, no mean feat and will become a priority over technology.
• Global food production has peaked and is in decline and pressures will cause (food) resource wars. Food issues will become a priority over technology.
• Fresh water sources are being degraded at a rate which will cause (water) resource wars and will become a priority over technology.
• Planned new nuclear generation has been put on hold in much of the world and being re-evaluated in much of the remainder.
• Globally, just in time delivery will become obsolete, necessitating local sourcing and production. This will inevitably lead to simpler, lower tech products. This problem was clearly demonstrated by the auto plant shutdowns and technology manufacturing bottlenecks that followed 11 March.
• Coal use will accelerate globally to replace nuclear, oil and natural gas generating stations that will be closing down.
• The Hydro Carbon Wars have already begun and will be increasing in scale and scope. You don't believe that Iraq and Libya are about democracy do you?
• Black swan events are sure to come upon us and change many things, including our day to day living patterns. Catastrophes of various kinds are inevitable.
• Even if there was time to experiment with other technological pathways on energy, there is a global shortage of capital and credit to do so.

This will have a profound effect on everyone, possibly the most impacted will be the technology and energy addicted cultures.

more to come ..........

Welcome to TechnoFolly.com

Welcome to Techno Folly where you will find concepts and examples about technology and society that are new to many and well worn to others. 

For years, in my practice as an industrial designer, I have been using terms like techno-folly, techno-grandiosity and techno-hubris to describe the way that humans have willingly and blindly embraced technology without understanding either the technology itself, it's limitations, ramifications and the risks in using or not using any given technology. Hopefully, with my postings, I can help people understand the what and why of goings on around them in their day to day lives.

I will be discussing and using real world, topical examples to illustrate my point.  Some topics in no particular order:

• Jevon's Paradox 
• Pareto's Principle
• Occam's Razor
• Complex Systems
• Black Swan Theory
• Entropy  -  Always Wins
• Murphy's Law
• Game Theory
• Unintended Consequences and it's child, the Law of Perverse Outcomes
• Law of the Iron Ring
• Law of Institutions
• Better is Better
• Law of Corrupt Politicians
• Law of Diminishing Returns
• Liebig's Law of the Minimum
• Hubbert's Peak Theory
• ...........

I hope that you enjoy the posts and I welcome your suggestions for topics.

Dan     TechnoFolly.com (at) gmail.com