I had started this article with the goal of using the series of tragic events that commenced 11 March 2011 in Japan to illustrate Leibig's Law of the Minimum.
Upon reflection, I have had to rewrite this piece as I believe that 11 March 2011 will prove to be a seminal date in human history - that was the day that techno-man reached his technological apex, that is to say, the day when "Peak Technology" was achieved and passed.
Mankind is now in technical decline and will never again reach the implemented overall level of technology that existed prior to that fateful March day. Sadly there will be one class of exceptions: there will inevitably be advances in weaponry and methods of human subjugation.
Why do I claim that Peak Technology has passed? In no particular order:
- Climate Change is real. Very real and will affect us all. When we speak of habitat loss, we are just speaking about the fauna and flora - think human habitat loss too. It is too late to develop the systems that were needed to mitigate the tragic circumstances that will be upon us very soon.
- Oil availability and pricing issues will affect the global economy radically. Energy is the master resource which all economies need to exist. Without oil, coal and electricity, there is no real economic growth - none. Managing this decline will become a priority over technology.
- Japan, the 3rd largest national economy, will likely have to relocate 2 million of it's citizens inside Japan, no mean feat and will become a priority over technology.
- Global food production has peaked and is in decline and pressures will cause (food) resource wars. Food issues will become a priority over technology.
- Fresh water sources are being degraded at a rate which will cause (water) resource wars and will become a priority over technology.
- Planned new nuclear generation has been put on hold in much of the world and being re-evaluated in much of the remainder.
- Globally, just in time delivery will become obsolete, necessitating local sourcing and production. This will inevitably lead to simpler, lower tech products. This problem was clearly demonstrated by the auto plant shutdowns and technology manufacturing bottlenecks that followed 11 March.
- Coal use will accelerate globally to replace nuclear, oil and natural gas generating stations that will be closing down.
- The Hydro Carbon Wars have already begun and will be increasing in scale and scope. You don't believe that Iraq and Libya are about democracy do you?
- Black swan events are sure to come upon us and change many things, including our day to day living patterns. Catastrophes of various kinds are inevitable.
- Even if there was time to experiment with other technological pathways on energy, there is a global shortage of capital and credit to do so.
This will have a profound effect on everyone, possibly the most impacted will be the technology and energy addicted cultures.
more to come ..........
